Après New Hampshire, Le Déluge

It was a huge, sorry, Yuugge night for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  Sanders beat Clinton by over 20 points. He far exceeded the RCP polling predictions.  While Trump’s victory was what was projected, it was still a 2:1 margin over surprise 2^nd place finisher, John Kasich.

NBC News exit polling found Sanders captured 85% of the under 30 crowd, 72% of independents voting in the Democratic primary, and 65% of those identifying as very liberal. WBUR exit poll  reported that Sanders beat Clinton by 11 points among women voters. (This means according to noted theologian Madeline Albright, a lot of New Hampshire women are going to Hell). Finally, 93% of Democratic Voters consider Bernie Sanders to be the most trustworthy. Hillary Clinton? 5%.

Holy crap these numbers are bad for Clinton. This was a shellacking pure and simple. And Clinton knows this. She is seeing a repeat of her 2008 humiliation. Last night’s speech was worthy of Lewis Carroll’s Queen of Hearts: Hillary Clinton is genuinely angry that people aren’t voting for her and she is blaming the voters. Her attack on the Supreme Court decision on Citizen’s United boiled down to this: No one has a 1^st Amendment Right to criticize her.

But for the fact that the Democrats opted to conduct their 2016 primary campaign as a coronation of the Clinton dynasty, the long knives would be out. You would have the other candidates vying to take out Clinton and become the main opponent of Sanders (see the 2016 GOP campaign). But this is a two person race. This all the Democrats have. As I’ve noted before, most of the deadlines for entering the primaries have passed. (At least in 1968, there was still time for RFK and others to jump in). There isn’t enough time for any candidate to jump into the race. To paraphrase former Boston Celtic’s coach Rick Petitino, Joe Biden isn’t coming in through that door. John Kerry is walking in that door. Elizabeth Warren is walking through that door. And if they do, they will be too late.

Joe Biden doing his David Caruso impression.

Clinton’s only (and I mean only) saving grace is, as I noted yesterday, this is Sanders’s high water mark. The Clinton machine is going to go all out to destroy Sanders now. Nothing will be off limits. (Recall it was Clinton backers in 2008 that started spreading the “Obama is a Kenyan” rumor that begat the Birther movement). In addition, the voter demographics become much more diverse as the election focus shifts to the South and West. Sanders has not traditionally polled well among non-white Democrats. Until recent polling data for South Carolina and Nevada are released, there is no way to know how his victory in New Hampshire and near-win in Iowa have moved the needle.

While many thought Sanders had entered the race simply to push Hillary Clinton to be a more progressive Democrat, he is now acting as if he is trying to win. And to win, he will need to broaden his support based. This is probably why he is meeting with Al Sharpton this morning.

On the GOP side, Trump won. It was a clear and convincing victory. Despite the fact that Trump is not a conservative and has supported gun control, single payer, government run health care and opposes free-trade, which is the polar opposite of what the modern Republican Party advocates, he captured over a 1/3 of the vote. I didn’t think Trump would last this long. Clearly he has tapped into a deep well of anger Americans have for the current two party system. (In exit polls, 40% of Republican voters said they were angry with how the Federal government is working. 42% of them went to Trump. Cruz got 15% of that group). It might behoove the media to explore why people are so angry. (I know they won’t. It’s much easier to mock Trump and his supporters). He is not going to fade any time soon. Last Saturday’s debate showed the other candidates Trump’s weaknesses on issues such as eminent domain. They will need to focus their attacks on those issues.

Saturday’s debate played a big role in last night’s results. Before Saturday, Rubio was moving up in the polls and looked to solidify a 2^nd place showing and succeed with his 3-2-1 strategy. Chris Christie’s attack on Robo-Rubio were amazingly effective. 46% of Republican voters made their decisions on who to vote for within the last few days. Over half said the debate played a role in their decision. (While Trump won a lot of these voters, Kasich seemed to have gained the most ground).

This was a horrible night for Rubio. He finished 5^th.  Jeb Bush finished ahead of him. Rubio, to his credit, admitted he made mistakes and blamed himself (though the media keeps trying to claim he blamed them) for his poor showing. It probably didn’t help his case that he repeated some of his canned lines within a speech promising not to use canned lines. This hasn’t killed Rubio’s campaign, but it has pushed him back into the pack of candidates. If he wants to remain a viable alternative to Trump, he will need to do exceedingly well in South Carolina and decent in Nevada. I don’t think he can win South Carolina after last night’s showing, but he will need a strong third to stay. If he comes in second, then he vaults back to being the “establishment” choice for President.

Rubio’s other problem is last night was a good night for Jeb Bush. Bush beat Rubio, coming in 4^th. While there is not a lot of evidence for Jeb Bush momentum, Bush’s strong performance gives him every incentive to stay in the race and challenge Rubio for Florida on Super Tuesday. By allowing Jeb to hang around, Rubio complicates his own campaign.

There is still no clear path to victory for Jeb Bush. He is not the right type of conservative for 2016. His presence continues to split the anti-Trump vote. But by beating Rubio, he has made the case to stay in a little longer and present his vision.

Ted Cruz had a decent night. Not great, but decent. New Hampshire is not Cruz’s natural habitat. The Granite State still has a lot of traditional, Rockefeller, rock-ribbed Republicans. Coming in third allows him to make the case in South Carolina that he is electable and can appeal to all regions.

John Kasich had the best night of all GOP candidates save Trump. It was a solid second place finish. It allows to him to argue he is viable and he will be able to stick it out until Super Tuesday March 15th and the Ohio Primary. (I doubt he will campaign much in South Carolina of Nevada). He’ll win Ohio for sure. If he can pick up some of the other states by that day (especially as Bush and Rubio will be battling to the [political] death for Florida), Kasich will be in for the long haul. This will split the anti-Trump vote 3 ways: Cruz, Rubio/Bush, and Kasich.

As for everyone else, as I noted yesterday Fiorina and Carson should call it quits. They’re done. There is no path by which they are going to win the nomination or amass sufficient delegates to affect the outcome.

Chris Christie announced he was heading back to New Jersey to assess his campaign. I think this tweet sums up his position:

Jim Gilmore got 118 votes. I think he conceded defeat, but I’m not sure as most of the media didn’t cover it. I think only his niece, Rory Gilmore, was the only accredited reporter following his campaign.

The sole reporter covering the Gilmore campaign

Seriously Gov. Gilmore, it’s time to let it go. Mike Huckabee, who dropped out a week ago Monday, got 210 votes. Rand Paul got 1700 votes (1%) and he isn’t running. Vermin Supreme, a guy who wears a boot on his head, got more votes than you. You are not going to get the nomination. You are not going to get any delegates. Let.It.Go.

Next Up is South Carolina and Nevada. All we need now is data as to what is going on in those states.

One Final thought: in both New Hampshire and Iowa, the polls got at least part of the story wrong. In Iowa, it vastly overstated Trump’s support. In New Hampshire, it vastly understated Sanders’s support. (The Republican side was closer to the polls numbers. Even though Bush and Cruz out-performed Rubio, their totals were all within the polls margins of error). Pollsters need to figure out what is going wrong.

[EDIT: For some reason I kept thinking Ohio’s election was on Super Tuesday, March 1st. It is not. Ohio holds theirs two weeks later, on March 15. Florida also holds their election that day, so the basic argument still holds. I’ve made slight edits to that paragraph]

Now Dixville! Now Millsfield! On Hart’s Location! New Hampshire Primary 2016

Well, the first votes have been cast in the 2016 New Hampshire Primaries. In the first three votes cast (the above stated Dixville, Millsfield, and Hart’s Location), the results are:

Trump            9                                  Sanders           17

Cruz                9                                  Clinton            9

Rubio              2

Carson             1

Christie            3

Kasich             9

Bush                2

Fiorina             1

So Sanders is the winner and the Republicans have a three way tie. Everyone can go home, right?

As Balki Bartokomous would say, “Don’t be ridiculous.”

There have been many stories of late pointing out the blatantly obvious: winning New Hampshire is not, and has never been, a perfect predictor of who will be the nominee. As with Iowa, the questions are 1) Who has the best ground game and 2) Who managed expectations the best?

Consider 1992’s race. George H. W. Bush and Paul Tsongas won the Republican and Democratic nominations respectively. The news cycle coming out the election was all about Pat Buchanan and Bill Clinton, the runners up. Why? Because they did much better than expected. There was never any doubt who was going to win.  Bush was the sitting President, Tsongas a longtime Massachusetts US Senator. But because Buchanan won over 1/3 of the Republican primary votes, Bush’s margin of victory was small than normal for a sitting Commander in Chief.

On the Democrats’ side, because Tsongas only won by about 9%, Bill Clinton was the story. Indeed, it was the New Hampshire result that earned Clinton the sobriquet of “The Comeback Kid”.

[Quick Aside: Real Clear Politic’s Carl Cannon this morning has a good story on how New Hampshire became so important in the election cycle]

So what does that mean for 2016?

For Democrats, Sanders goes into the voting with a 13 point lead according to RCP polling tracker. A week ago it had been 17 points; a month ago it was 5 points.  If Sanders wins by double digits, no amount of spin by the Clinton campaign is going to convince people that Hillary “won” the expectations game, especially after winning by a head (or was it tails?) in Iowa. A single digit victory by Sanders allow Clinton to claim momentum has peaked.

Of course the problem for Sanders is he has probably peaked. The South and West are not favorable territory. Even if he was to achieve a blow-out victory (say 20+ points), it would not create a groundswell of support for Sanders. More likely, the Democrats would see Clinton as being mortally wounded and incapable of leading the party to victory. It would create pressure for Biden or John Kerry (or even Al Gore) to jump into the race, though they don’t really have time to gain ballot access to enough states to win outright, and it would force the Democrats to have brokered convention.

For the Republicans the picture is slightly more muddled. Yes, it appears Trump will win. But, like Sanders, the closer the margin of victory, the worse it is for Trump.  RCP has Trump with a 17 point lead going into today. How solid that is remains unclear. The UMass and ARG polls have margins of error of 5 points. They have Trump leading by 21 and 16 points. The Gravis poll has a margin of error of 3.7 points and it shows Trump leading only by 11. It’s still double digits, but a lead of 11 is not as impressive as a lead of 17.  If Trumps wins by 17, then he remains a serious player and the focus will be on who comes in second and third. But, if Trump wins by 11 or less, and especially if the margin of victory is only single digits, than the story becomes Trump’s fade.

As for the rest of the pack, barring an unforeseen miracle, this is the end of the road for Carson and Fiorina. The good doctor’s third place finish in Iowa killed anything even remotely resembling momentum. And whether Cruz planted stories of Carson dropping out after Iowa are true, the claim made by the Carson campaign that he was just going to home to get some shirts was unconvincing. As for Fiorina, she had the one good debate and that was it.

Christie and Jeb Bush should probably pack it in after tonight. Jeb though, has the money to push on and maybe try to fight until the Florida primary. He could make until Super Tuesday. As with Sanders, the election calendar doesn’t really favor Chris Christie. South Carolina and Nevada are not natural Chris Christie territory and he will continue to fade. Of course, dropping out now means he has to spend more time in New Jersey, something the governor of that state seems loathed to do.

John Kasich is just behind Rubio. If Kasich comes in second, he could become the Washington Republican establishment’s candidate of choice. With that backing, he would have enough momentum to last until Super Tuesday when his home state of Ohio holds its primary. Kasich, under those scenarios, probably couldn’t win the nomination outright, but he would have enough delegates to affect the outcome. If somehow Kasich won New Hampshire, all bets are off.

Marco Rubio seems to be running a 3-2-1 campaign, to wit: Third in Iowa, Second in New Hampshire, First in South Carolina. A second place finish in New Hampshire would show that he has the momentum going forward. A lot of the aforementioned establishment types would then back Rubio.

For Cruz, a second or third place finish would be sufficient to keep him in the conversation. If he falls to fourth, the spin will be that he wasn’t a natural fit for New England Republicans. It would slow his progress, but it wouldn’t be fatal. Anything lower than that and Iowa becomes a mirage. A second place showing and he becomes the co-front runner with Trump. If he was to win, Cruz becomes the one to beat.

The biggest problem in handicapping the race is the lack of data as to how this is playing in the next battlegrounds of South Carolina and Nevada. The last South Carolinian poll was January 23,2016 and Nevada December 2015.  Whereas there was polling in New Hampshire simultaneous to the Iowa polling, you could get a sense of how events were playing out in both places. With no information as to how the upcoming states are reacting to the changing political landscape, it is difficult to gauge exactly what tonight’s outcome will mean for the top 3 or 4 candidates. The campaign will grind on until Super Tuesday. By then we will know if the party is coalescing around a candidate (or two) or if the chances of a brokered GOP convention are increasing.

Finally, if Jim Gilmore wins a single delegate, he should declare victory and go home. If he gets none, he should send a letter to the editor of the Manchester Union Leader announcing he’s going home to get a change of shirts and then just stay there.

[Update: I have corrected my misspellings of John Kasich’s name. I don’t know why I keep misspelling it]

Election 2016: Democrats assem…. zzzzz

Well, that was needlessly painful. I don’t what your political views are, but you have to admit the Republican debates are far more entertaining. Last night was boring. The only entertaining part, (aside from Bernie “the Scream” Sanders complaining Hillary Clinton was shouting too much) was CNN had Don Lemon ask the question about African-American issues and Juan Carlos asked about Latino issues to the Whiter-than-White Democratic field. I kept waiting for Turd Furgeson to appear and ask the panel a question that affects poor whites. Perhaps Yakov Smirnov should have been on hand to ask about the “reset” of US/Russian relations.

Only the policy side, it’s clear the party of Jefferson and Jackson is now the party of Marx and Engel. All of the candidates (even Jim Webb) were all trying to out do one another with how much “free stuff” they could give away and how much control they intended to give the government over the lives of American Citizens. And it’s also clear that Democrats have gone full Animal Farm: All Lives Matter, Black Lives Matter More. 

So, what did we learn about the candidates? Not much that we didn’t already know, but let’s take a look at them:

Hillary Clinton:

Twenty years ago, the late, great William Safire called Hillary Clinton “a congenital liar” And there was nothing in last night’s debate that altered that fact. She is still lying about the private, unauthorized email server. Or, take for instance the Trans-Pacific Pact (TPP), the massive trade agreement the US and many Pacific Rim nations just finished negotiations. When Clinton was Secretary of State, she promoted TPP and set the groundwork for its negotiations. Last week, she announced she opposed the deal and said during the debate, the finished agreement was flawed. Here’s the problem: The document has not been released for public consumption. How would HIllary know what the details of the agreement are? She couldn’t. She simply switched her position. Being Pro-TPP is no longer in vogue for the Democratic base. Hillary simply alters her position to what is the most advantageous. She will say anything to anyone to get elected.

It was also interesting to see she considers Republicans as her enemies. Nothing says “I’m a progressive who can get things done” like

Bernie Sanders:

He’s a socialist who hates capitalism. Everything in that statement is not only true, but Sanders has actually said those sentiments. He has proposed Eighteen Trillion Dollars ($18,000,000,000,000.00) in new spending. That’s above what the government spends now. We can’t even pay for what we spend now. Even if you raised taxes to 100%, you still could not afford to pay for all of Sanders’s programs. As far as I can tell, the only thing Sanders doesn’t want to tax are bad haircuts and Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream. Sanders is the old guy you get stuck sitting next to on the bus or the train and he spends the entire time ranting about this and that. He is Abe Simpson in the flesh.

Martin O’Malley:

The basis for the Tommy Carcetti on the Wire. He had talked tough about Clinton’s email scandals until last night. After Sanders complained people were spending too much time on it and the crowd lapped it up, he went Tim Pawlenty and didn’t make an issue of it. He was a non-factor entering the debate and leaves the same way.

Lincoln Chafee

The man introduced his Presidential Campaign by promising to get us on the metric system. Last night he admitted he voted to repeal Glass-Segal because he didn’t understand what it was about and just voted that way because everyone else did. He’s the Jim Gilmore/George Pataki of the Democratic Party: He’s running for President and not even his family can say why.

Jim Webb

First of all Jim Webb is the only candidate, on either side of the aisle, who is has actually killed a man. That man was the one Webb identified as his biggest enemy. Webb’s a throwback to the Democratic Party pre George McGovern. Which means no matter what he said last night, he has zero chance of winning.

***

There was one candidate not at the debate, Lawrence Lessig. The man is running on a platform that is inherently unconstitutional. He’s not a serious candidate and there was no reason for CNN to invite him.

The other person not at the debate  was Joe Biden. The VP was the elephant (not) in the room. He may be running or he may not. He could be the only serious challenge to the Clinton nomination, but I don’t think he wants to run. I know that before he died this summer, Beau Biden, the Vice-President’s son, encourage Joe to run. But I don’t think the Vice-President’s heart is in it. And if you don’t have the fire, don’t run.

There are three more Democratic debates, all scheduled for times when no one will be watching, maximizing Clinton’s chances of securing the nomination. And unless she is seen field stripping an assault weapon while eating a Chic-Fil-A sandwich, she will be the candidate for the Democratic Party. But there is enough uncertainty amongst the Democrats that make you wonder if Sanders may not ultimately be their standard bearer.

I truly believe the most interesting General Election match-up would be Rand Paul versus Jim Webb. In some ways it would be a throwback to the elections of the 1950s and 1960s. It would be based more on issues and less on personalities. It’s not going to happen. I fear we are going to get a Trump versus Sanders match-up where the theme of the election will be Fear and looking back.

One final thought: 15 million people tuned in to watch the snooze fest. That smashed the previous record of 10 million who watched Obama and Clinton in ‘08. 23 million watched the last GOP debate. A lot of people are paying attention. And they’re paying attention a lot earlier in the campaign cycle. It is far too early to tell if this is just a one time deal or if this is heralding a new paradigm shift in American Politics. But clearly something is different is happening.

Election 2016: GOP Debate Round 2, Electric Bugaloo

Good granny gracious that was a long debate last night. And to whichever CNN producers allowed the social media question regarding the candidates choosing their Secret Service names: I hate you.

Last night’s debate (I’m not discussing the appetizer debate featuring… I have no idea. Didn’t get a chance to watch it and I feel pretty confident that none of the candidates had a Carly Fiorina moment that will vault them to Prime Time) was being billed as featuring CNN’s Jake Tapper as moderator with Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt as questioners. Turned out, Tapper asked most of the questions, with occasional queries from Bash. Hewitt apparently was just making a cameo, much like Steven Seagal in Executive Decision. I hope the candidates didn’t spend too much time reading the Looming Tower or the other books on Hewitt’s Necessary Bookshelf in preparation for having to answer his Foreign Policy Quiz.

I was uncomfortable with Tapper’s style. “Candidate X, Candidate Y has said we should invade Syria and defeat ISIL to stop Planned Parenthood. Why is he wrong?” The debate seemed to have undertones of Thunderdome: Two Candidates Enter, One Leaves. And the constant split screen with Donald Trump elevated him far more than was justified, especially as the night wore on and he started to shrink under pressure. I guess with 11 candidates, it was an easy way to spark a discussion, but it also had the side effect of minimizing some of the candidates. (Scott Walker spoke only for 8 minutes during the debate).

As for the Candidates, let’s break them down into brackets: The Outsiders (Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson); Senators (Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio); and the Governors (Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, and Scott Walker)

Outsiders Bracket

I’m pretty sure Donald Trump plugged his own office tower in an answer. This may explain how The Donald is planning to finance his Berlin-esque wall with Mexico: Product Placements in his Presidential Speeches. (“As I was riding in my luxurious Ford Limo, siping a Red Bull, which let me tell you has yuge benefits. People are always coming up to me saying, ‘Hey you really try Red Bull’…”).

Other than that, it was not a good night for Trump. Fiorina’s response to his sexist comments knocked him off his game. His sparring with the other candidates revealed that he doesn’t know much about the details of policies. Could I name the leaders of the Qud, Kurds, Hezbollah and other Middle Eastern groups? No. But there are two caveats: 1) I’m horrible with people’s names as a general rule and 2) I’m not running for President. If I was running, I’d tried to remember the names. More importantly, I would at least known why these people were important. My saving grace is my ability to recall details about people whose names I forget, either physical attribute or something about their personality or upbringing. (“Yeah, you know the barista that has the odd fear of bungee cords.”). Trump seems to think his saving grace is hiring someone who knows the Arab names.

The debate showed Trump is style over substance on the issues. He came off looking like a bully. And he can’t admit when he is wrong or he has made a mistake. Trump was more offended by Jeb Bush’s suggestion that Trump couldn’t get something built than by the implication Donald tried to buy political favors. Donald Trump is The World’s Croniest Capitalist: “I don’t always buy politicians. But when I do, I get what I want.”

In addition to the Donald not apologizing to Fiorina, his refusal to apologize for his comments Jeb’s wife, Columba Bush as well as his smug trashing of the Bush family was… well let me put it this way: I’m not a Jeb Bush fan. But if Jeb had turned and cold-cocked Trump right there and then, I’d vote for Bush III.

I know I said it after the last debate, but I really think Trump is hitting his high water mark. He’s not broadening the party’s base. The more the debates turn to substance, the less stature he has. The shot a Rand Paul? Odd, but you can make an argument for it. Attacking George Pataki? The man wasn’t even in the prime time debate and is one poll away from entering the Jim Gilmore zone. And Trump’s constant Appeal to Authority of unnamed people doesn’t disprove he is just making it all up as he goes along. Who are all these legal scholars that agree with Trump? Does he know them? Has he spoken with them? How about naming these people and letting the American people decide. And his answer to the vaccination question? Well, I believe William Shatner, sitting inside Air Force One, probably sums it up best:

“Help! Stewardess, Donald Trump is claiming vaccines cause autism!”

(Or was that from when Trump was trashing the 14th Amendment?)

The punditocracy, following the consulting of omens, has declared Carly Fiorina winner the debate. I guess you could say that. She was very strong, but not so that she has toppled Trump. But she probably had some of the better lines of the evening, including her response to Donald’s comments and his refusal to apologize:

“I think women all over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said.”

If she had dropped the mic then and walked off stage, I think Tapper would have looked into the camera and said, “Thanks for tuning in tonight.” But she didn’t and some of her claims, including the Planned Parenthood video, are complete bunk. You  just can’t keep make stuff up and not expect people to call you out on it. (I suspect she may have been referring to the videos released in aggregate, but that is not what she said or implied). And her refusal to answer the question about putting a woman on US currency was petty. There is nothing sacrosanct about who is and is not on money. It is a fair question to wonder if some bills should be redesigned and a new face placed.

I don’t know if Fiorina could really win. But, if nothing else, she has shown herself to be Cabinet Secretary material.

If Fiorina won the debate, Ben Carson has to be the co-runner up. He didn’t overly thrill and his answers tended to be long. (One Twitter-wit noted the longest distance between two points was a Ben Carson answer). But the doctor had a good grip on the questions and was able to answer with substance and occasional flashes of wit. The good doctor is not going to be the next President, but he has shown that he has the gravitas to be on the stage.

Senatorial Bracket

Marco Rubio was the clear victor of the bracket, and the other co-runner up. He was right to smack down Trump’s view that the entire political campaign should be English only.(“And if [voters] get their news in Spanish, I want them to hear that directly from me. Not from a translator at Univision.”). I could have done without the water joke or the reference to his dad as a bartender, but those aren’t deal breakers. I don’t necessarily agree with Rubio’s foreign policy view, but he has clearly has a grasp on world events. All in all, he presented himself as someone Americans could be comfortable with having his finger on the nuclear trigger.

Ted Cruz, on the other hand, is sinking. Beyond becoming Donald Trump’s mini-me on immigration, he is becoming more and more of a caricature of a candidate. He says he opposed John Roberts’s nomination, but he voted for his appointment to the Bench. This “I was against him when I was for him” is nonsensical. Cruz is a living version of South Park’s undergarment gnomes: 1) declare run for presidency 2) ???? 3) Sworn in as President.

The final senator, Rand Paul was fine. I’ve previously admitted that I’m rooting for him. Paul does best when he is able to highlight his libertarian views. When he was able to espouse those views, he was good. The exchange on medical marijuana and his opposition to Iraq highlighted these facts. (“If you want boots on the ground, and you want them to be our sons and daughters, you got 14 other choices. There will always be a Bush or Clinton for you, if you want to go back to war in Iraq.”) I don’t know if it was good or bad that at times he seemed exasperated by some of the answers. He recalls Jon Lovitz’s Mike Dukakis impersonation: “I can’t believe I’m losing to this guy.” The only way Rand is going to muscle into the top echelon is to stop trying to show his conservative bona fides, and focus on his libertarian ones. He need to show why he is the different type of Republican.

Governor’s Bracket

It wasn’t the greatest night for Jeb Bush. He was much better than the first debate, though that could be the soft bigotry of low expectations. He had a couple of good quips and seems to understand that he has to sell himself to the American People and not expect a coronation. But a lot of his policies seem to be warmed over concepts from his brother and father’s administrations. His favoring of Common Core doesn’t help him with the base. He opposes the sequester, the first time in who knows how long that the government has actually spent less money than the year before. If you believe in small government, isn’t cutting the budget part of the dea?  Opposing spending cuts won’t help him. Nor will his defense of the Chief Justice (unless he punched out Trump for the Donald all but claiming everything in the last 8 years was George W Bush’s fault).

John Kasich is doing better. Contrary to my original view, he seems to be rising while Walker is fading. He’s not doing anything to show why he would be a great President, but he’s not hurting himself. He is adopting a variation of the Romney 2012 formula, be everyone’s second choice. Then, when the voter’s preferred candidate drops out of the race, s/he will vote for Kasich. It’s not the most electrifying way to run, but maybe it works this time.

Scott Walker is flailing. He did ok, but he’s not standing out. Only 8 minutes of speaking is probably why he is becoming forgettable. But he’s also not inserting himself into the debates. With this many candidates, he’s going to have to muscle in on conversations or drop out. From what he said about his plans to overhaul federal labor laws, he could potentially make a good Labor Secretary.

Chris Christie’s performance was much better, even if the facts weren’t with him. Contrary to what he said, Christie has been opposed to medical marijuana and seems to be content with being Pot Prohibitionist in a time when that view is becoming increasingly outdated. I have mixed views on his slamming Trump and Fiorina bickering over their business leadership. On the one hand, he is probably correct that most viewers don’t really want to hear which of the two is better CEO. On the other hand, as a candidate that CONSTANTLY reminds us of 9/11 and his prosecutorial role in days following, he really doesn’t have the standing to criticize others for taking a similar tack based on their records.

Finally, there’s Mike Huckabee.  …

There’s not much to say. Unless Kim Davis suddenly becomes a major political issue, Huckabee has got nothing and no visible means to broaden his base. In the pre-primary days, when the party bosses ruled, Huckabee would be the type of candidate mooted by a small group in order to gain some leverage in choosing the ultimate nominee. Huckabee won’t garner enough delegates to that at the convention.

As for the issues, I’m glad the candidates are talking about the 10th Amendment, but I think there should be more discussion of the 9th. And while it’s great to discuss the foreign policy implications of our actions in Syria, maybe the candidates could discuss why they’re seemingly ok with the current President engaging in ongoing military action in the absence of Congressional approval. While I think the Iran deal is incredibly bad and premised on wishful thinking, I would prefer if the candidates took a more serious tone when discussing it, as opposed to who will vacated it the quickest. (Rand Paul being a notable exception)

But at least they are discussing issues. The more debates, the better prepared the nominee will be for the general election. I was surprised Rick Perry was the first to call it quits. There are currently 15 candidates. Plus Jim Gilmore. I wonder if by October 28th we will be down to a dozen.

We’ll see how it goes in six weeks in Colorado.

One last note: 23 million people watched the debates last night. That’s slightly lower than the first debate (24 million), but still amazing. It is very clear the American people are paying more attention this cycle.

Election 2016: Making a Good First Impression

I had no intention of writing about Thursday’s Republican debates. (I was going to discuss the 70th Anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead). Normally, a debate this far out from when voters will cast their ballots doesn’t mean much, especially when it is held in August, traditionally the silly season of American politics. I am not aware of any candidate in any debate this early having ever scored so well as to vanquish all challengers. Likewise, almost no candidate has ever screwed up so badly as to destroy their chances. (Tim Pawlenty in 2011 is the exception. His failure to stand by his “Obamney Care” jab at Mitt Romney was pretty much the beginning of the end of his campaign).

This year seems to be different. It may be the exception or perhaps, the new rule. In any event, this debate was exceptional. Well actually the two debates. The main event, for top ten candidates polling, and the 5 pm debate for the remaining seven.But both were good. Really good. How good? Well, consider this tweet:

I don’t know a lot about Ted Allen’s politics, but I seriously doubt he contributes to the GOP. All of yesterday, people were buzzing about the debates. So, it makes sense to look at them. Let’s start with the main event. Twenty Four Million (24,000,000) people watched the debate, making it the highest rated program ever on the Fox News Network. Even the New York Times’ Frank Bruni grudgingly complimented Fox. Back-handed yes, but still a compliment.

In general, there was some of the expected Obama-bashing and Hillary Clinton bashing. But a lot of the debate really was the candidates talking about what they would do as President, not how evil or wrong the other side is. Substance seems to be the focus of the candidates right now. All of them, Most of them seem to want to show the voters why they should be President as opposed to why the others shouldn’t.

Donald Trump came in leading the polls. He may have left leading, but his momentum, I think, is spent. His refusal to pledge to support the eventual Republican candidate was a colossal mistake. Threatening to run as a third party candidate is not going to fire up the grassroots conservatives. They want to win in 2016 and will not look kindly on anyone who might split the vote and allow a democrat into the White House for a third consecutive term.

This brings up a question: Why is Trump running as a Republican? His policies are not remotely conservative or Republican. He’s pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-single payer health care, pro-eminent domain and pro-higher taxes while being anti-flat tax, and anti- free trade. The Donald is the ultimate crony-capitalist. He gave money to those in power in return for favorable treatment done the road. He has more in common with a lot of the people to whose campaigns he has donated (Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Harry Reid,  and Chuck Schumer) than the Grand Old Party itself.

(As an aside, I’m still not sure I understand why Trump trumpeted Hillary coming to his wedding because he paid her to come.It’s not really going to endear him to the base and why would you pay any guest to come in the first place? Beyond the food and open bar I mean.)

The man is delusional. I’m pretty sure politicians were talking about illegal immigration before Trump raised the topic. He’ll be around for a while, he has the money to stay, but as a political force, he’s almost done. His hissy fit about Fox’s Megyn Kelly’s questions looks petty. If he can’t handle discomfort with Kelly’s questions, why should any voter think Trump will succeed in Washington.

And speaking of Washington, Ben Carlson (who didn’t seem to have much to do during the debate) had the best laugh line of the night when he noted as a surgeon, he was the only candidate “to take out half of a brain, although you would think, if you go to Washington, that someone had beat me to it.” Carson is a brilliant surgeon, but I’m not sure he has what it take to be President.

Rand Paul acquitted himself well, as did Chris Christie. (I think Paul got the better of their exchange regarding the NSA, but I will admit to a pro-Rand Paul Bias). Paul is right to position himself as a different kind of Republican, but I’m not sure the party is ready to follow him.

Marco Rubio impressed.Rubio probably had the second best line of the night, “Well, first, let me say I think God has blessed us. He has blessed the Republican Party with some very good candidates. The Democrats can’t even find one.”

Jeb Bush on the other hand…. not so much. And what did he mean “In Florida, they called me Jeb, because I earned it.” I never realized ‘Jeb’ was some honorific title.

John Kasich and Scott Walker are battling for the same slice of the republican pie: those yearning for a Midwestern Governor as President. Neither helped or hurt themselves. I think Walker has the edge, thanks mainly to the Wisconsin Unions’ ham-fisted attempts to defeat him. Kasich’s defense of increasing Medicaid/Medicare as something he would tell St. Peter had a Christian appeal that normally plays well to the GOP crowd. But I think Republican voters have moved on from that sort of politicking. “Compassionate Conservatism” has played itself out.

Mike Huckabee is the last candidate I would have expected to have raised the issue of pimps in a Republican debate.

(Incidentally, who was the marketing person who bought air time during a GOP debate to show an ad for Straight Outta Compton? I would love to see the Venn diagram showing the cross-over of Republicans and N.W.A fans).

I don’t think Huckabee did anything to expand his appeal. Whatever element does go for the “Compassionate Conservative” is Huckabee’s base.

Probably the most disappointing of the main event was Ted Cruz. Not that he fumbled or did something wrong. He just didn’t make much of an impression. He was forgettable.

If you look at the debate we do sports standings, I think Huckabee, Kasich, and Carson are probably on the bubble. One or more could be knocked out of the next debate by some of the 5 pm debates.

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That debate, i.e. the Early Bird Special, was being called the “Kiddie Table” debate. I think a better name would have been “The Not Ready for Primetime Candidates” with Carly Fiorina being the breakout star.  I would be very surprised if she is not in the top ten by the next debate.

She was good enough that the Democratic National Committee put out a condescending tweet, attacking her. Nice to see the democrats are continuing their war on women.

Rick Perry also did well. Not as spectacular as Fiorina, but enough that he could also join her on the big stage.

Of the rest, Rick Santorum was Rick Santorum. He is angling for the social conservative votes. But Huckabee has them already and  the moral majority is no longer the driving force in the Republican Party. Nowadays, it’s a battle between the defense hawks and the budget hawks. There’s no room for a Huckabee and a Santorum.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was ok. Nothing to vault him into the main event next time, but didn’t crash and burn.

Lindsay Graham’s answer for everything seemed to be invade the Middle East. The man took a question about defunding Planned Parenthood and answered it by saying we needed more troops in Iraq. I would have loved it if, during the main debate, Megyn Kelly had said, “This is for the whole panel. Early tonight, Sen Graham seemingly advocated invading Iraq as a solution to defunding Planned Parenthood. My question: Was Sen. Graham drunk or is he insane?”

George Pataki seems to have cornered the “I want a president who was a governor on 9/11” vote. Beyond that, I have no idea who wants to vote for him. Nothing inspiring about him.

Does anyone know why former Virginia governor James Gilmore is running for President? No seriously, does anyone know and if so, could they let the governor know? Not since Ted Kennedy, has a major party Presidential candidate seemed so befuddled as to why he was on stage. It was sad.

However, I think the award for the saddest candidate performance goes to:

A desperate cry for attention.

Nothing screams “I desperately want the attention that I’m not getting” like that tweet. Well, that tweet and the stories as to how she watched the debate with Kim Kardashian and Kanye West. (Unless Kanye is her secret debate weapon: “Ima let you finish Marco, but Hillary had the best answer…”). The once and future nominee of the Democratic Party seems to understand things are not going as she scripted. It just doesn’t seem to dawn on her that the Rose Garden strategy doesn’t fit with these times. She’s trying too hard to be hip and cool. And those words are not usually associated with Hillary Clinton. Americans dislike transparent political pandering. It’s almost enough to cause one to experience fremdschämen. Almost.

The Republicans did very well Thursday night. The circus that is Trump was revealed and he was overshadowed by the more thoughtful candidates. Fox did an amazing job at asking uncomfortable questions to force the candidates to occasionally have to go off the talking points.

As Frank Bruni noted, “ On this night, the network that pampers Republicans provoked them instead”. And on that night, Democrats finally announced their debate schedule (just before the GOP’s got underway). It will be interesting to see if CNN can match Fox in style and substance.

I’m not holding my breath.