SURPRISE

So this was released today:

The criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s e-mail scandal that the American people have been repeatedly told wasn’t criminal and wasn’t a scandal is back in play. Apparently there was just enough time for one more October Surprise.

It is not exactly clear what the re-opening of the investigation mean. The FBI references other emails that it didn’t know when it gave Clinton’s aides their sweet-heart deals to cooperate with investigators. But it does come following the Wikileaks email dump this week revealing that Clinton’s aides knew the President was lying when he said he didn’t know Clinton was using a private server and not the State Department email system. The Podesta emails imply the testimony by Clinton confidants to the FBI may not have been entirely accurate.

Now is this going to tip the election to Trump? Eh, probably not. This isn’t a black swan event that would create a path to victory— that is unless the FBI arrests Clinton by this time next Friday. But it will probably make the election a little closer than it was looking as of this morning. Clinton’s victory margin will be narrower in the popular vote as well in the Electoral College (something closer to Obama’s 2012 victory as opposed to George H W Bush’s 1988 victory).

What it will probably do is solidify public support for a Republican Congress and Senate to serve as a bulwark against a Clinton presidency. And it all but guarantees Clinton’s favorability rating will still be underwater when she is sworn in.

It may be nothing, but the fact that the FBI felt the need to amend its director’s Congressional testimony suggests there is something more than a few wisps of smoke causing them to reopen the investigation.

As a reminder, there is still time to vote for Gary Johnson